Prediction for the 2014 Cornwall Municipal Election

The following is an analysis and opinion piece written by Jason Setnyk on the possible results of the 2014 Cornwall Ontario Municipal Election. The following prediction of the election results is not an endorsement for any of the candidates.

The number of votes associated with each candidate is under the assumption that there will be approximately 13,000 votes cast like in the 2010 election. Citizens can only vote one person for Mayor, and between one to ten people for councillors.

For Mayor, the incumbent Bob Kilger should be on the ropes. From whistle blower scandals, to the human resource boondoggles, to a recent vote for a huge pay hike, there is a call for change at City Hall. However Leslie O’Shaughnessy has not been nearly visible enough during this election. Will Leslie get more than the 900 votes he got in 2006 for Mayor? Yes, absolutely. However he will still likely fall short. Jamie Gilcig has brought some good ideas to the table during the election, but he has alienated many voters with his image and his gonzo style of journalism. Ironically, the very things that are holding Jamie back politically, namely his style of journalism, is what shined light on many of the issues at City Hall over the past four years.

2014 Predictions for Mayor:
Bob Kilger – 6500
Leslie O’Shaughnessy – 5500
Jamie Gilcig – 1000

There is a call for change at City Hall, but with 28 people running for 10 spots, this will benefit many of the incumbents (who already have an established base of support). Vote splitting will be a disadvantage to newcomers seeking a seat. Despite that, some newcomers and a few former City Councillors will have a real shot at vying for a seat come October 27th.

Former City Councillors Mark A MacDonald and Mary Ann Hug can not be discounted. Mark A MacDonald finished second for Mayor with over 5000 votes in 2010, while Mary Ann Hug fell short of being re-elected for Council that same year by only a few hundred votes. While Brock Frost, Claude McIntosh, and Guy St-Jean probably have best chance of competing for a seat among newcomers. However there are a handful of other new comers that can also be considered real contenders.

2014 Predictions for City Council:
Bernadette Clément – 6500
David Murphy – 6000
Maurice Dupelle – 5500
Elaine MacDonald – 5200
Claude E. McIntosh – 4700
Glen Grant – 4400
Guy St-Jean – 4300
Brock Frost – 4200
Andre Rivette – 4100
Denis Carr – 4000
Mark A. MacDonald – 3900
Syd Gardiner – 3700
Gerald E. Samson – 3600
Mary Ann Hug – 3500
Alyssa Blais – 3300
Todd Bennett – 3200
Roland Besner – 2900
Rony Macarone – 2700
Carilyne Hébert – 2600
Justin Towndale – 2400
Heather Megill – 2200
Denis Sabourin – 2100
Davey Bedard – 2000
Greg Kielec – 1900
Pat Clarke – 1800
Gary W. Samler – 1600
Mike O’Neil – 1400
Geoff Stephenson – 1000
Stephanie White – 500

Will my predictions be close or will they be way off? If my prediction for vote totals of each candidate are any indication, it will likely be a close race, and there will probably be a few surprises with the election results.

Who will you vote for on October 27th? Who do you think is realistically going to get elected in 2014? Please post your comments and predictions below. Let’s see who can get it the closest.

To learn more about the candidates platforms read my segment “5 Questions with…”. Many of the candidates answered my questions and gave insights on their platform and stance on many important issues.

Good luck to all the candidates, and thank you for your dedication to our community.