Federal Election 2025: Our Predictions
In 2022, we at The Seeker put forth our predictions for that year’s municipal elections. A couple of us had quite a bit of fun with that, and decided we would take on this endeavour again for this year’s federal election, both with nationwide seat counts and in the local race for MP here in SD&G.
Note: These predictions reflect who we THINK will win based on a variety of factors, not who we WANT to win.
Federal Election race
This election is certainly poised to be quite a wildcard, Nationwide, the Liberals and Conservatives have been eating up all of the support of the minor parties in a race to a majority of the population, and polls indicate that both parties have at least a shot at winning. The aggregates have shown an LPC lead since shortly after Carney took the reigns, but they’ve narrowed up over the past month of campaigning. Here are our predictions for seat count and popular vote percentage:
| Mai-Liis | Julia | Mateo | |
| Liberal Party of Canada | 151 seats | 183 seats, 42.1% | 178 seats, 41.7% |
| Conservative Party of Canada | 153 seats | 126 seats, 38.5% | 132 seats, 40.2% |
| Bloc Québécois | 29 seats | 25 seats, 6.7% | 22 seats, 6.1% |
| New Democratic Party | 8 seats | 8 seats, 8.8% | 9 seats, 8.1% |
| Green Party of Canada | 2 seats | 1 seat, 2.1% | 2 seats, 1.9% |
| People’s Party of Canada | 0 seats | 0 seats, 1.5% | o seats, 1.3% |
The Race in Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry
Locally, here in the newly redistricted Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry, the race may be closer than polling aggregates solely based on regional shifts indicate. This is because the LPC has nominated popular Cornwall city councillor Sarah Good, as well as the fact that our district now includes North Glengarry, a region that typically votes more red than the rest of SD&G. It’s still certainly an uphill battle, but if there were any time for the LPC to pull off the upset, it would be now. Here are our predictions with percentages and total votes:
| Mai-Liis | Julia | Mateo | |
| Eric Duncan, Conservative Party of Canada | 34,500, 54.2% | 30,274, 48.5% | 32,389, 53.8% |
| Sarah Good, Liberal Party of Canada | 24,989, 39.3% | 27,532, 44.1% | 23,430, 38.9% |
| Mario LeClerc, New Democratic Party | 2,900, 4.6% | 3,102, 5.0% | 3,171, 5.3% |
| Gordon Kubanek, Green Party of Canada | 1,100, 1.7% | 1,214, 1.9% | 912, 1.5% |
| Karl MacKinnon, Libertarian Party of Canada | 153, 0.2% | 275, 0.4% | 315, 0.5% |
| TOTAL | 63,642 | 62,397 | 60,217 |
What do you think of our predictions? Do you agree? Let us know!
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Liberals: 155 seats; Conservatives: 149 seat; Bloc 31 seats; NDP – 8 seats
The Conservatives will receive more votes than the Liberals, but due to their high concentration in the West this will not mean more seats.
SDG: Eric Duncan will defeat Sarah Good by 5,000 votes.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Carney wins PM but the CPC gets a majority at 163~ seats. I am also interested in seeing how the NDP and BQC react because they are both poised to lose around 10 seats…