From October 8th to October 13th of 2026, The Seeker collected data from our readers regarding Mayoral Election vote intention. With over 450 valid responses, we find that councillor Sarah Good leads with 47.8% of responses, followed by incumbent Mayor Justin Towndale at 29.1%, challenger Art Levert at 21.4%, and challenger Nicole Spahich at 1.7%. This figure excludes the ~12% of voters who responded that they were uncertain.
Disclaimer: While we maintain that this poll was sourced to be representative of Cornwall as a broad sample and that we expect it to be accurate, it was an open poll of Seeker readers and other Facebook users. Election day results may vary.
Methodology
We’ve released a 12-page PDF which goes into much greater depth on our sampling, methodology, and analysis of results. That PDF will be attached below, but let us briefly explain the basics here.
We shared our survey openly on Facebook, including to Cornwall-based community group pages. Because these groups each contain distinct sets of thousands of members who are civic participants in the community, we believe the sample is the best that we could have collected without true random sampling.
We received a total of 485 responses. Of these responses, 16 were discounted for being suspicious (filled out too fast from IP addresses that had already filled the poll out several times). This gave us a sample size of 469. At this size, assuming accurate sampling, we are left with a Margin of Error of +/- 4.4% with a confidence level of 95%.
Still, it is possible that certain demographic groups were over-sampled. For this reason, we asked three broad demographic questions about gender, age, and 2025 partisanship. Using rake weighting, we accounted for under-representation and over-representation in responses, such with those over the age of 65 being under-represented, or 2025 Conservative voters being over-represented.
The weighting in this survey was done using resources that can be found in our PDF. These resources are studies regarding vote participation by gender, age, and party affiliation. We weighted all three of these factors using SPSS Rake Weighting. All other data analysis was also done using SPSS Advanced Statistics.
Results
As stated in the introduction, our poll found that Sarah Good has a substantial lead with 47.8% of responses, followed by Justin Towndale at 29.1%, Art Levert at 21.4%, and Nicole Spahich at 1.7%. When counting those who are uncertain, Good receives 42.2% of responses. Towndale follows at 25.6%, Levert at 18.9%, and Spahich at 1.5%. Those who do not plan to vote make up 0.6% of respondents, and undecided voters make up another 11.2%.
Among male voters, Good leads with 47.1% of responses, followed by Towndale at 33.7% and Levert at 18.7%. Among women, 49.5% of respondents choose Good, with Towndale and Levert each receiving 23.7% of responses. Nicole Spahich performs substantially stronger with women than with men.
By age, Councillor Good led our poll in every age demographic except 45-54, which Mayor Towndale narrowly led. Good performed particularly strongly with those aged 18-24 and those aged 65+. Towndale generally performed best with those under 55, and Levert did best with those aged 45-64.
By self-reported 2025 Federal Election vote, Good leads Liberal voters with 79.4% of their responses, followed by Towndale at 19.4% and Levert at just 1.3%. Among Conservatives, Levert leads with 37.5% of responses, followed closely by Towndale at 36.9%. Good is a distant third in this demographic at 21.9% of responses. Nicole Spahich’s highest-polling demographic is Conservative women, where she polls at 6.9%.
Conclusion
It is again important to disclaim that our sample is not necessarily one-to-one with the target population of Cornwall. If this sampling method did work in our favour however, there is a very narrow path to victory for Towndale, Levert, and Spahich, who all trail Good significantly. With two weeks until election day, it’s still possible for them to surge, but it may be an uphill battle.
We would like to thank all who participated in our Seeker Community Pulse as always. For any detailed questions about our methodology, sample, or if you are a candidate who wishes to request the raw data collected, please contact me at [email protected]. Additionally, the PDF that I alluded to earlier is linked below, and it contains many more charts, tables, and a more in-depth analysis. The answer that you’re looking for may be there. If you’re as nerdy as I am about statistics, I’d recommend checking it out.
Thank you for reading!
About the Author
The results of your sophisticated poll matches my poor man’s poll, where I counted the candidates lawn signs (curb signs didn’t count) and I found Good ahead of Towndale by nearly 2 to 1.
The election, however, is not over until the last vote is counted as Polls, in the past have been proven to be wrong!
Ian Bowering